Countdown: 8 or 23? days to Google-Yahoo DOJ deadline

The plot thickens. Google's CEO Eric Schmidt remains defiant that he is going ahead with the Google-Yahoo pact regardless, but may be signalling Google is willing to wait until the second of its two contractual deadlines: October 11th, versus September 25th per press reports.

What's the real deadline?

• Under section 16 of the redacted Google-Yahoo agreement submitted to the SEC, the companies gave the DOJ 105 days from June 12th  -- that's September 25, 2008, to complete their antitrust review. Google-Yahoo can extend that review deadline if they choose to. 
  • Another deadline in the Google-Yahoo agreement -- October 11 or 120 days after June 12th. After October 11th either Google or Yahoo can terminate the agreement to "avoid or end a lawsuit" filed by antitrust authorities.
• There is no official DOJ deadline or timetable to file an antitrust suit if they choose to do so.

Clearly there has been a cascade of ominous developments that signal the DOJ investigation of the Google-Yahoo deal is very serious indeed.

• A Top Gun Hired: Justice brought in a top outside prosecutor, Sandy Litvack, who is known as a sharp and dogged litigator who enjoys the rough and tumble of litigation, to help the DOJ frame their antitrust analysis into a winnable case in Federal Court.
• Biggest Customers Oppose Deal: The Association of National Advertisers in a letter to the DOJ disagreed with Google that the Google-Yahoo ad pact would benefit them, and oppose it as harmful to customers' interests.
• Harmed competitor complains: Sourcetool filed a Netscape-like complaint/letter to the DOJ complaining Google anti-competitively hurt its competitive business.
• World Association of Newspapers Opposes: Another big customer group strong opposed the Google-Yahoo partnership in a letter with especially harsh words.
• EU launches an Inquiry: Even though Google and Yahoo purposely crafted their agreement to apply to the U.S. only, and not the tougher EU antitrust environment, the EU has jumped in anyway.
• Google disses its customers' intelligence: Google's Chief economist, Hal Varian, in a condescending post explains why Google's customers that are complaining about the pact -- don't know what they are talking about.
  • Mr. Varian repeats the falsehood that Google does not set advertising prices -- like advertisers don't know that Google and Yahoo do actually set reserve prices for most keywords.
  • Mr. Varian also insults customers intelligence in declaring that Google and Yahoo will never see each other's prices.
    • So everyone is to blindly trust that Google's $800m payment doesn't entitle it to an informal peek at Yahoo's prices -- when there is zero transparency or auditability and when there is every financial incentive to collude to drive up prices!
    • This is an especially perverse twist on the old phrase -- "trust but don't verify."

Bottom line: This is a very serious antitrust investigation into Google's anticompetitive behavior in the Google-Yahoo deal and elsewhere. And Google is staying true to form -- arrogantly maintaining that Google knows best and that everyone should simply trust them and their "don't be evil" motto.